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Market Recap
December 1, 2025
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The Markets​
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A change of direction…
Stock markets in the United States reversed course last week, with two major indices eking out gains for the month, reported Callum Keown of Barron’s. There were some other important changes last week that also may affect markets and investors. Here’s a recap:
New expectations for rate cuts. Stock markets gained as the probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower the federal funds rate in December increased from 30 percent on November 19 to above 85 percent last week.
“The shift in rate sentiment started after last week’s delayed September jobs data, which painted a mixed picture. It then picked up steam on Friday after New York Fed President John Williams signaled he sees room for a reduction ‘in the near term’ amid labor market softness,” reported Edward Bolingbroke and Ye Xie of Bloomberg.
Signs of weakness in the housing market. The move from a seller’s housing market to a buyer’s housing market may have begun, reported Prashant Gopal of Bloomberg. In September, price growth slowed for the eighth month in a row as demand for homes fell amid economic uncertainty and affordability issues.
“Home sellers in the U.S. are yanking listings off the market, as the nation’s real estate sector stagnates. Nearly 85,000 sellers removed their properties in September, the highest number for that month in eight years, according to Redfin. The number of stale listings — those sitting on the market for 60 days or more — jumped to the highest level for any September since 2019.”
An unanticipated credit risk for lenders. A Supreme Court decision legalized state-level sports gambling in 2018 and it’s affecting credit scores in states where online sports gambling is allowed, according to research from UCLA. Deteriorating consumer financial health could lead to problems for lenders. Nick Devor of Barron’s cited analysts at Bank of America who wrote:
“For lenders the increasing availability of online betting markets raises the potential for revolving debt spikes, accelerated defaults, and higher charge-off rates, particularly among subprime borrowers…a new risk for lenders, one that they have not had to deal with historically and underwriting models may need to be adapted.”
Stock markets in the United States moved higher over the shortened holiday week, “ending a volatile November and [capping] off a strong Thanksgiving week,” reported Barron’s. “In a remarkable comeback, the Dow closed 0.3 [percent] higher for November. It was down 3.8 [percent] just eight days ago.” Yields on U.S. Treasuries were mixed.
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Sources:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/sports-betting-risk-enders-bofa-analysts-ef87e724 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-1-25-Barrons-Stocks-Jump-%201.pdf
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-1-25-CME-Group-FedWatch%20-%202.pdf
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-25/traders-crowd-into-fed-futures-targeting-a-december-rate-cut or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-1-25-Bloomberg-Traders-Crowd-Into-Fed-Futures%20-%203.pdf
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-25/us-home-price-growth-slowed-in-september-as-buyers-pulled-back or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-1-25-Bloomberg-US-Home-Price%20-%204.pdf
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-25/us-homesellers-pull-stale-listings-off-market-as-interest-fades or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-1-25-US-Home-Sellers-Pull%20-%205.pdf
https://www.barrons.com/articles/sports-betting-risk-enders-bofa-analysts-ef87e724 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-1-25-Barrons-Sports-Betting-a-Risk%20-%207.pdf
https://explodingtopics.com/blog/smartphone-usage-stats
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-36256-4
https://lifestylemedicine.stanford.edu/what-excessive-screen-time-does-to-the-adult-brain/
https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2025/11/12/eight-trends-to-watch-explained-with-maps or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/12-1-25-Economist-Eight-Trends-to-Watch%20-%2012.pdf​