Market Recap

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May 23, 2022

 

On the fear and greed cycle.

 

One of the most challenging times for investors is a market downturn. Whether markets are experiencing a correction or a bear market, it’s really disturbing to watch the value of your savings and investments decline.

 

Last week, the CNN Business Fear & Greed Index showed extreme fear was the emotion driving investment decisions. The Index “is a way to gauge stock market movements and whether stocks are fairly priced. The theory is based on the logic that excessive fear tends to drive down share prices, and too much greed tends to have the opposite effect.”

 

During times like these, many investors succumb to fear and take actions that damage their ability to reach their financial goals. The fear and greed cycle works like this:

 

  • Feeling greedy: During bull markets, everyone wants to invest. The market is moving higher, and nobody wants to miss out. As a result, investors become so enthusiastic that they are willing to pay higher share prices than companies may be worth. Former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan called this “irrational exuberance.”

 

  • Feeling fearful. During corrections and bear markets, when the market is moving lower, no one wants to invest. Some investors become so concerned, they sell, which drives prices even lower. Investors who sell accept a loss of principal; a decision that can negatively affect their ability to reach long- and short-term financial goals.

 

It’s counterintuitive, but many think the time when investors should be greedy is when the market nears a bottom. That’s when it may be possible to find shares with strong fundamentals that are selling at attractive prices. Since no one really knows when a turning point will occur, investors who decide to buy low may experience losses before they realize gains.

 

Last week, major U.S. stock indices moved lower.

 

If you’re feeling fearful, let us know. One of our most important roles is helping clients stay focused on financial goals, maintain a disciplined investment approach, and keep a long-term perspective in difficult markets.

05-23-22 PWM Report.PNG

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Sources:

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4673464/user-clip-alan-greenspan-irrational-exuberance

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/01/030701.asp

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/ben_graham.asp

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-stock-futures-climb-after-china-rate-cut-as-dow-headed-for-its-worst-losing-streak-in-history-11653036426

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-is-loss-aversion/

https://www.investopedia.com/a-history-of-bear-markets-4582652

https://www.bankrate.com/investing/what-is-a-bear-market/

https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-2022-advance-estimate

https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q2-2022

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/05/15/global-growth-is-slowing-but-not-stopping-yet (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/05-23-22_Global%20Growth%20is%20Slowing%20But%20Not%20Stopping_11.pdf)

https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/585.John_Steinbeck