Our Services
Market Recap
June 16, 2025
​​
The Markets
​
Investors had a lot to think about last week.
A wealth of positive company and economic news lifted markets for much of last week. However, markets stumbled on news that Israel had launched an attack against Iran. Here’s what happened:
U.S. - China negotiations were positive. U.S. stock markets welcomed news that the world’s two largest economies had successfully established a framework for ongoing discussions. Daniel Flatley and Annmarie Hordern of Bloomberg reported:
“The U.S. and China capped two days of high-stakes trade talks with a plan to revive the flow of sensitive goods — a framework now awaiting the blessing of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping…the Chinese had pledged to speed up shipments of rare earth metals critical to U.S. auto and defense firms, while Washington would ease some of its own export controls...”
Demand for U.S. Treasuries was solid. The U.S. government issues Treasury bills, notes and bonds to fund government spending. Lately, there have been concerns about whether demand for Treasuries would fall due to buyers’ concerns about tariffs or deficits or both. Low demand could mean higher yields on Treasuries – and higher interest costs for the United States, reported Karishma Vanjani of Barron’s.
Last week, there was strong demand for Treasuries. “A closely watched auction of 30-year Treasuries saw stronger-than-expected demand on Thursday, easing for now worries that investors would shun the U.S. government’s longest maturity,” reported Michael Mackenzie of Bloomberg.
Inflation remained relatively low. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation, showed headline inflation was up 2.4 percent year over year in May. When volatile food and energy prices were excluded, prices rose 2.8 percent year over year. The cost of energy declined in May, and the price of gasoline dropped 12 percent.
“The May CPI came in cooler than expected. While tariff impacts could send inflation higher in the months ahead, the fact that prices held steady so far was an encouraging sign. Odds of a September interest-rate cut ticked higher, and bonds rallied on the news. That has led to rallies in riskier and rate-sensitive stocks,” reported Connor Smith of Barron’s.
Israel launched an attack on Iran. Stock markets moved lower on Friday after Israel launched an airstrike that targeted Iranian nuclear facilities and military leaders, and Iran responded.
“A full-scale war between Iran and Israel has long represented one of many geopolitical planners’ worst-case scenarios. A conflict that damaged global oil supply or shipping would quickly reverberate in the U.S. and across the world by quickly raising oil prices and sending investors selling stocks for safe-haven assets,” according to Matt Peterson of Barron’s.
By the end of the week, major U.S. stock indexes had moved lower. Yields on longer maturities of U.S. Treasuries also moved lower over the week.
​
Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Private Advisor Group, a registered investment advisor. Private Advisor Group and Parks Wealth Management are separate entities from LPL Financial.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, and not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
Sources:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-10/us-china-officials-say-consensus-reached-on-geneva-framework or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-16-25-Bloomberg-US-China-Officials-Agree%20-%201.pdf
https://www.barrons.com/articles/bond-market-treasury-auction-30-year-c6519b91 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-16-25-Barrons-Bond-Market-Prepares-for-Big-Treasury-Auction%20-%202.pdf
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-12/us-treasury-s-30-year-bond-auction-is-met-with-solid-demand?srnd=phx-fixed-income or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-16-25-Bloomberg-US-30-Year-Bond-Sale%20-%203.pdf
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-061125/card/wall-street-s-risk-on-trade-gets-green-light-from-cpi-wOw2oqZx7ZrTSSem1zxg?mod=Searchresults or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-16-25-Barrons-Wall-Streets-Risk-On-Trade%20-%205.pdf
https://www.barrons.com/articles/israel-attacks-iran-trump-us-51e928ec?mod=hp_LEDE_C_1_B_1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-16-25-Barrons-Israel-Goes-to-War-Without-Trump%20-%206.pdf
https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-16-25-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%207.pdf
https://news.gallup.com/poll/654905/americans-everyday-products-without-realizing.aspx
https://time.com/partner-article/7279245/15-quotes-on-the-future-of-ai/