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Market Recap
October 26, 2026
The Markets
Markets hate uncertainty.
Last week, there was a lot of uncertainty. Technology stocks rallied and retreated. Defensive sectors gained and lost ground. Stock market gyrations reflected the markets’ uneasiness. The VIX Index, which gauges expectations for volatility over the next 30 days, moved like a rollercoaster through the week, rising and falling and rising again.
Here are a few of the matters investors were pondering:
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Mid-term elections. Elections create a lot of uncertainty as pundits speculate about possible congressional configurations and their potential effect on the economy. While pre-election jitters contribute to market volatility, political uncertainty generally dissipates after the election. Matthew Griffin, Felice Maranz, and Ye Xie of Bloomberg explained:
“Investors can take some amount of comfort, as history points to gains for stocks no matter the election outcome. An analysis…found that the S&P 500 Index has risen in the 12 months after every midterm election in the post-World War II era.” Of course, past performance is no indication of future results.
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Oil prices, inflation, and higher interest rates. Last week, oil prices rose to the highest level since spring as hostilities continued in the Middle East and reports emerged that the U.S. plans to escalate following the midterm elections, reported Ines Ferré of Yahoo! Finance.
Rising fuel and energy costs rekindled concerns about rising prices and the steps the Federal Reserve may take to quell inflation. The CME FedWatch tool showed the market-implied probability of a December rate hike was above 70 percent.
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Spending on artificial intelligence (AI). The shares of a major technology firm fell sharply despite a solid earnings report. Investors were not happy about the cost of developing a new AI agent or that the company’s cash flow was in negative territory. Investors also were concerned about future spending, reported CJ Haddad of CNBC.
“Investors are reassessing two competing forces within hyperscaler stocks: AI spending and return on investment. The market was suffering the consequences, with the Nasdaq Composite down 2.7 percent and the S&P 500 losing 1.4 percent,” reported Naomi Buchanan of Barron’s on Thursday.
Investment risks and opportunities. As tech stocks sold off, many investors moved into the U.S. Treasury market, which is the largest and most liquid government bond market in the world. Historically, Treasury bonds have been considered “safe haven” investments, and that was how investors saw them last week. Demand pushed Treasury yields lower.
It was a sea change. In 2026, “persistent inflation, heavy government borrowing and policy uncertainty prompted investors to demand greater compensation — higher yields — to hold US debt,” reported Ruth Carson, Masaki Kondo, and Alice Atkins of Bloomberg.
While market volatility can be unnerving, it’s important to keep your eye on your long-term goals. Your portfolio was selected to help you achieve those goals. If you have any questions about markets or your investments, please get in touch.
Last week, major U.S. stock indexes finished the week lower, as did yields on all maturities of U.S. Treasuries.
Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Private Advisor Group, a registered investment advisor. Private Advisor Group and Parks Wealth Management are separate entities from LPL Financial.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.]
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate, and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* This is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax advisor.
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, and not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm.
Sources:
https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-102326?mod=hp_LEDE_C_2 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/10-26-26-Barrrons-Tech-Selloff-Cools%20-%201.pdf
https://www.cboe.com/tradable-products/vix/ or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/10-26-26-Cboe-Volatility-Index%20-%202.pdf
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-22/us-midterm-elections-2026-what-results-could-mean-for-wall-street or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/10-26-26-Bloomberg-What-Different-US-Midterm%20-%203.pdf
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/10-26-26-CME-Group-Fedwatch%20-%205.pdf
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/meta-stock-q3-earnings-free-cash-flow.html
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-today-meta-earnings-weigh-down-markets-tech-sector-774c7a53 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/10-26-26-Barrons-Metas-First-Negative-Free%20-%207.pdf
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-23/treasuries-link-to-ai-shows-sharp-shift-as-haven-trade-returns or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/10-26-26-Bloomberg-Treasuries-AI-Link%20-%208.pdf
https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/10-26-26-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%209.pdf
https://nationaltoday.com/november-holidays/
https://nrf.com/research-insights/holiday-data-and-trends/winter-holidays (main page and slide 6) or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/10-26-26-NRF-Shopping-Destinations%20-%2012.pdf
https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industries/consumer-markets/library/holiday-outlook-trends.html
