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Weekly Perspective
November 24, 2025​
​‘Tis the season!
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The holiday shopping season gets underway this week, and expectations are high. The National Retail Federation (NRF) looks at a bunch of economic factors – consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation, and monthly retail sales – to estimate how much people will spend over the winter holidays. This year, the forecast suggests sales will top $1 trillion.
“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity…We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones,” explained NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.
The gift shift
The Currency reported on a recent survey, called the Going Rate, that explored how Americans think about gift giving and spending. When responses were tallied, it found that:
86 percent Believe gifts can be meaningful without being expensive.
75 percent Expect gifts will be more expensive this year because of tariffs and inflation.
60 percent Think gift culture has gotten “out of hand”.
58 percent Have a gift budget.
56 percent Buy gifts throughout the year to spread out the cost.
48 percent Experience gift fatigue.
33 percent Are adopting no-gift policies.
Fifty-five percent of millennials, 50 percent of Gen Z, and 28 percent of baby boomers would rather give the gift of time and shared experience. They believe their presence is the real gift. Respondents who plan to give gifts expect to spend about $64 per person, on average.
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* These views are those of Carson Coaching, and not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm.
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Sources:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-11-21/investors-angst-goes-far-beyond-ai-and-nvidia? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/11-24-25-Bloomberg-Investors-Angst%20-%201.pdf
https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_112125.pdf or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/11-24-25-Factset-Earnings-Insight%20-%202.pdf
https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/11-24-25-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%205.pdf
https://www.empower.com/the-currency/money/going-rate-research
https://www.today.com/life/holidays/christmas-vacation-quotes-rcna48344